Friday, October 03, 2008

Do Investors Really Want the Bailout?

If it weren't such a serious situation, I would be laughing at the comedy being produced by the 'mainstream' and financial press concerning the recently enacted bailout of investment firms. An example from the New York Times:

Wall Street finally got what it had been demanding all week, a financial rescue package, but by the time the gavel fell in Washington on Friday, investors had turned their attention to other problems in the economy.
On Monday, the House of Representatives rejected a $700 billion bailout plan for the nation’s financial system, causing the Dow Jones industrial average to fall 777 points. On Friday, after round-the-clock negotiations, the House passed the plan, sending the Dow down 157 points.
It was a disappointing end to a cantankerous session. The Dow gained nearly 300 points in the morning in anticipation the bill would go through; when it passed, those gains were erased. But the afternoon swoon was less a judgment on the merits of the bailout than proof of a broader truth about the market: investors are always looking ahead.

Rather than twist themselves in a pretzel with this tortured logic, they could use Occam's razor to come to the conclusion that many investors did not want the bailout to happen in the first place.

The Times' writer notes that the DJIA fell by 777 points on Monday, but fails to note that it rebounded by 485 points on Tuesday, the day after the first attempt to pass the bailout by the House failed.

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