Is a Recession Coming?

I hope not. But one fairly reliable indicator says yes: The yield curve. Short-term rates on U.S. Treasury securities have been higher than long-term rates for most of the past six months.

In the past, such a condition has indicated that a downturn of the economy is imminent, and that the stock market is headed south. You can view the evidence in my paper regarding the role of stock prices in business cycles.