Is the Yield Curve Un-Inverting?

The yield curve for US Treasury securities, which has been somewhat inverted for a few months, has now flattened out and even has a slight upward slope. This is the result of declines in the short-term rates and increases in the long-term rates:

Maturity Yield
1 month 4.754%
3 month 4.775
6 month 4.961
2 year 4.967
3 year 4.926
5 year 4.911
10 year 4.929
30 year 5.021

Source: WSJ.com (subscription required)

Will we avoid the bear market and recession that usually accompany a yield curve inversion? Good question. For more info, see my work on the role of stock prices in business cycles.

Update: The wsj this morning says that the increase in long-term US interest rates is caused by increases in long-term rates in Europe, which are caused by increased loan demand due to the recovery in Europe. That makes sense. But why have US short-term rates been decreasing? European short-term rates are expected to increase, as are Japanese rates.