Can O'Bama Win?

I don't know. I see several reasons why he might win and several more why he might not.

In his favor:

(1) His base is energized and enthusiastic. They will work hard for him.

(2) Many of who should be McCain's core constituency are not so enthusiastic. I have voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980, and I'm not even certain that I will vote for McCain.

(3) The Republican incumbent in the white house is unpopular. (Although I believe the leftist media have obfuscated the reasons for his unpopularity.)

Against O'Bama:

(1) He is too far to the left. Most people don't want a socialist America.

(2) Republicans have an advantage in the electoral college. They can even lose the popular vote and win the electoral vote, as Bush did in 2000. Democrats simply are not competitive in the south, the great plains states, and the rocky mountain states. O'Bama will probably win the pacific coast states and most of the northeast. His problem is that McCain will probably do well in the midwest states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota, and perhaps even Pennsylvania.

(3) McCain is able to attract many independents and quite likely many Hillary supporters.

(4) O'Bama's ties with Wright, Pfleger, and the Trinity Church will continue to hurt him, as well as the perception of elitism.

This election will be a first for me. Since I am so put off by McCain I don't have a horse in this race. If the nominee were Thompson, Giuliani, or even Romney then I would be supporting the Republican ticket enthusiastically.