Tuesday, April 01, 2008

Who Wins in November?

I blew my prediction that Romney would beat out McCain for the Republican nomination. So, take it for what it is worth.

The problem for both Hillary and Barack is that they are both to the left of center in their own party, even more so for the country as a whole. I don't like McCain but he appears to attract many Democrats and Independents. Recent polls have shown him ahead of both Democrat candidates in some blue states. This will enable him to take the battle to their turf, while the Democrat nominee tries to hold his/her base

Here are the results of the last few presidential elections, in decreasing order. I have omitted 1980, 1992, and 1996 because they were three-way races.

Reagan: 525 electoral votes
59% of popular vote
Mondale: 13 electoral votes
41% of popular vote

Bush Sr.: 426 electoral votes
53% of popular vote
Dukakis: 111 electoral votes
46% of popular vote

Bush Jr.: 286 electoral votes
51% of popular vote
Kerry: 251 electoral votes
48% of popular vote

Bush Jr.: 271 electoral votes
48% of popular vote
Gore: 266 electoral votes
48% of popular vote

My guess: McCain will win by at least the same margin Bush Sr. defeated Dukakis in 1988. The margin might even be better than that, but unlikely it will be as good as Reagan's landslide of 1984.

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